Estimation of the Outbreak Severity and Evaluation of Epidemic Prevention Ability of COVID-19 by Province in China.

Objectives. To compare the epidemic prevention ability of COVID-19 of each province in China and to evaluate the existing prevention and control capacity of each province.Methods. We established a quasi-Poisson linear mixed-effects model using the case data in cities outside Wuhan in Hubei Province, China. We adapted this model to estimate the number of potential cases in Wuhan and obtained epidemiological parameters. We estimated the initial number of cases in each province by using passenger flowrate data and constructed the extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to predict the future disease transmission trends.Results. The estimated potential cases in Wuhan were about 3 times the reported cases. The basic reproductive number was 3.30 during the initial outbreak. Provinces with more estimated imported cases than reported cases were those in the surrounding provinces of Hubei, including Henan and Shaanxi. The regions where the number of reported cases was closer to the predicted value were most the developed areas, including Beijing and Shanghai.Conclusions. The number of confirmed cases in Wuhan was underestimated in the initial period of the outbreak. Provincial surveillance and emergency response capabilities vary across the country.

Hyperosmolarity Deserves More Attention in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients with Diabetes: A Cohort-Based Study.

PURPOSE: Recently, a cluster of pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 were identified in Wuhan and spread throughout the world. More information about risk factors for mortality of critically ill patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 remain to be evaluated. METHODS: We included adult patients confirmed with SARS-CoV-2 infection who were critically ill and admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Tongji Hospital in Wuhan from Feb 4, 2020 to Feb 20, 2020. Data were collected and compared between patients who died and improved. Logistic regression was used to explore the risk factors for death of SARS-CoV-2-infected critically ill patients. RESULTS: A total of 160 critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection were included, of which 146 patients with appeared outcomes were included into the final analysis. The random blood glucose, serum sodium and effective plasma osmolarity were higher in deceased patients, especially in patients with diabetes. There were 7 patients with diabetes with hyperosmolar status and all of them were deceased. Multivariable regression revealed that older age (odds ratio 4.28, 95% CI 1.01-18.20; p = 0.049), higher C-reactive protein (odds ratio 1.01, 1.00-1.03; p = 0.024), higher interleukin-6 (odds ratio 1.01, 1.00-1.03; p = 0.0323), and d-dimer greater than 1 µg/mL (odds ratio 1.10, 1.01-1.20; p = 0.032) at admission were associated with increased odds of death. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, hyperosmolarity needs more attention and may contribute to mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19, especially in those with diabetes. Older age, inflammatory response, and thrombosis may be risk factors for death of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Estimation of the Outbreak Severity and Evaluation of Epidemic Prevention Ability of COVID-19 by Province in China

Objectives. To compare the epidemic prevention ability of COVID-19 of each province in China and to evaluate the existing prevention and control capacity of each province. Methods. We established a quasi-Poisson linear mixed-effects model using the case data in cities outside Wuhan in Hubei Province, China. We adapted this model to estimate the number of potential cases in Wuhan and obtained epidemiological parameters. We estimated the initial number of cases in each province by using passenger flowrate data and constructed the extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to predict the future disease transmission trends. Results. The estimated potential cases in Wuhan were about 3 times the reported cases. The basic reproductive number was 3.30 during the initial outbreak. Provinces with more estimated imported cases than reported cases were those in the ing provinces Hubei, including Henan and Shaanxi. The regions where the number of reported cases was closer to the predicted value were most the developed areas, including Beijing and Shanghai. Conclusions. The number of confirmed cases in Wuhan was underestimated in the initial period of the outbreak. Provincial surveillance and emergency response capabilities vary across the country. (Am J Public Health. 2020;110:1837-1843. https:// doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2020.305893)